03 June 2024
According to the CFA Italy Radiocor Sentiment Index for June 2024, the expectations on the domestic economy of professional Italian investors holding CFA® certifications remain stable and are only slightly negative, with a “Sentiment Index” value of -13.3 points. The survey was conducted by CFA Society Italy, in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, among its members from May 20 to May 31, 2024.
Two-thirds of the participants consider the current economic situation of our country stable, 16.7% view the Italian economy in a positive condition while the same percentage still perceives a negative dynamic.
Regarding expectations for the next six months, the figures remain essentially unchanged: 13.3% of respondents expect an improvement in macroeconomic conditions (+0.8 points compared to last month), 60% estimate stable conditions (-2.5 points compared to the last survey) and 26.7% foresee a worsening (+1.7 points compared to the previous month). Thus, the summary indicator remains stable: the difference between those who are optimistic about the prospects of the Italian economy compared to the pessimists is -13.3, which represents the “CFA Society Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index” for June 2024 (-0.8 points compared to early May).
At the same time, expectations for the next semester for the Eurozone have slightly decreased; for the USA, the data on expectations remains essentially unchanged, albeit still slightly negative.
Monthly Commentary*
Annalisa Usardi, CFA, Global Research, Senior Economist at Amundi:
The data published so far have revealed a more positive growth than expected at the European level, while confirming some signs of a slowdown in the American economy compared to the strong pace at the end of 2023. We expect this trend to continue: the United States will continue to grow, but at a progressively slower rate and below its potential, thus aiding the disinflation process.
Italy and the Eurozone will continue to grow at a pace in line with their potential, supported by the recovery of domestic demand which will benefit from the slowdown in inflation. Central banks will thus be able to begin cutting rates, bringing them back into less restrictive territory already this year. This context is favorable for a moderately risk-on asset allocation, focused on market segments resilient to a scenario still characterized by significant elements of uncertainty (e.g., geopolitics).
*The Monthly Commentary gathers the analysis of a financial professional associated with CFA Society Italy from time to time. The content and forecasts therein are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily represent the views of CFA Society Italy.