03 July 2024
According to the CFA Italy Radiocor Sentiment Index for July 2024, expectations for the domestic economy of professional Italian investors holding CFA® certifications have declined compared to last month, with a Sentiment Index value of -33.3 points. The survey was conducted by CFA Society Italy, in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, among its members during the period of June 20-30, 2024.
Over 75% of the participants consider the current economic situation of our country to be stable, while the remaining approximately 24% view the Italian economy as experiencing a negative dynamic.
In terms of expectations for the next six months, respondents do not anticipate further improvement in macroeconomic conditions. About 66.7% estimate conditions to remain stable (+6.7 points compared to the last survey) and 33.3% foresee a worsening (+6.7 points compared to last month). The summary indicator has declined: the difference between those optimistic about the prospects of the Italian economy and the pessimists stands at -33.3, a value that represents the “CFA Society Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index” for July 2024 (-20 points compared to early June).
Expectations for the next semester for both the Eurozone and the USA have also declined.
Monthly Commentary*
Anna Paola Marchi, CFA, Distribution Director for Italy at Federated Hermes, commented:
"Despite the recent slowdown in growth, the US economy does not appear to be under stress, and expectations for a soft landing remain prevalent. Inflation is still very high, especially in services, and markets now expect one or two cuts by the Fed towards the end of the year. Moreover, recent inflation data may have alleviated fears of a short-term acceleration, but there remain areas of persistent resistance where the belief in a near-term recession continues. Looking at the Eurozone, the markets had anticipated the 25 basis point cut by the ECB, but it will be more challenging to predict the central bank's next moves. Despite progress in bringing inflation back to target, the path of inflation from here on will likely be more turbulent. Considering the improved growth prospects in the Eurozone, markets might be less confident about the future path of ECB reference rates and lean towards a cut in 2025."
*The Monthly Commentary gathers the analysis of a financial professional associated with CFA Society Italy from time to time. The content and forecasts therein are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily represent the views of CFA Society Italy.