04 August 2026
The recovery in confidence recorded last month proved short-lived. According to the latest CFA Italy-Radiocor Financial Business Survey, conducted between 20 and 31 July 2026 among members of CFA Society Italy in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor, financial professionals have adopted a more cautious stance, with the CFA Italy-Radiocor Sentiment Index falling back into negative territory at -19.2, reflecting a weakening of expectations for the Italian economy over the next six months.
Importantly, the deterioration concerns future expectations rather than the current economic environment. Respondents continue to view the Italian economy as broadly stable: 80.8% describe current conditions as unchanged, while 19.2% consider them negative. None of the respondents views the present macroeconomic backdrop positively.
Looking ahead, however, confidence has softened. 38.5% of respondents expect Italy’s economic outlook to worsen over the coming six months, compared with 19.2% anticipating an improvement, while 42.3% foresee broadly unchanged conditions. The resulting balance brings the Sentiment Index back below zero after its brief return to neutrality in July.
A more cautious global outlook
The weakening in sentiment is not confined to Italy. Expectations for the Eurozone have stabilised around neutral territory, suggesting that analysts see neither a significant deterioration nor a meaningful improvement in the region’s economic prospects.
The outlook for the United States, by contrast, has become noticeably more cautious. The sentiment balance declines to -30.8, pointing to growing concerns that the US economy may lose momentum over the coming months.
Inflation concerns re-emerge
One of the most significant changes in this month’s survey relates to inflation expectations. After several months of easing price expectations, respondents once again anticipate higher inflation across the major economies.
For Italy, the balance between respondents expecting inflation to rise and those expecting it to fall reaches 20.8, while the corresponding figure for the Eurozone stands at 16.7. Inflation expectations also remain positive in the United States, with a balance of 20.8.
This renewed inflationary outlook has been accompanied by expectations of tighter monetary conditions. Respondents anticipate higher short-term interest rates, with balances of 48 for both Italy and the Eurozone and 36 for the United States. Long-term interest rates are also expected to rise, with balances reaching 36 in Italy, 32 in the Eurozone and 24 in the United States.
Equities remain relatively resilient
Despite a less favourable macroeconomic outlook, respondents continue to express a constructive view of equity markets.
Italian equities remain the preferred market, with sentiment reaching 20 for the FTSE MIB and 16.7 for the FTSE STAR. Expectations also remain positive for the Euro Stoxx 50 (16), while optimism towards the S&P 500 is more subdued, with a balance of 4, reflecting increased caution towards US equities.
Energy and financials remain preferred sectors
Sector preferences also reveal a differentiated picture.
The oil & gas sector emerges as the most favoured, recording the highest sentiment balance (39.1). It is followed by banks, utilities and telecommunications, each posting a balance of 18.2, while insurance remains modestly positive at 13.6.
At the opposite end of the ranking, the automotive sector continues to face the weakest outlook, registering a balance of -63.6. Respondents also remain cautious on industrial machinery (-36.4) and construction (-31.8), reflecting concerns over cyclical sectors more exposed to slowing economic activity.
A weaker dollar expected, while oil prices remain under pressure
Currency expectations have also shifted. For the first time in recent months, respondents expect a modest weakening of the US dollar against the euro, with the sentiment balance falling to -4.2.
Conversely, expectations remain supportive for the Japanese yen, which continues to be seen strengthening against the single currency, posting a balance of 12.5.
Finally, respondents continue to expect lower energy prices. 37.5% anticipate a decline in crude oil prices over the next six months, compared with 20.8% expecting an increase, producing a balance of -16.7. While less pronounced than during the peak of geopolitical tensions, the survey suggests that investors continue to expect a gradual easing of pressure in energy markets.
Overall, the August survey reflects a shift from the renewed optimism recorded in July towards a more balanced—and ultimately more cautious—assessment of the economic outlook. Although financial professionals do not currently foresee an imminent deterioration in economic conditions, renewed concerns over global growth, inflation and monetary policy have tempered expectations for the months ahead, bringing the CFA Italy-Radiocor Sentiment Index back into negative territory.
