03 February 2025
The “Forecast Dinner,” the annual event organized by CFA Society Italy, the leading association for CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst®) professionals, will take place in Milan on February 5. This event serves as a key opportunity to discuss macroeconomic scenarios and financial market forecasts for the upcoming year.
This year’s panel discussion will feature prominent experts: Ariel Bezalel, Investment Manager for Fixed Income at Jupiter Asset Management; Antonio Cesarano, Chief Global Strategist at Intermonte SIM; Henrietta Pacquement, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Fixed Income and Sustainability at Allspring; Luca Simoncelli, Investment Strategist at Invesco; and Marco Valli, Chief Economist at UniCredit.
During the event, CFA Society Italy will celebrate the tenth anniversary of the CFA Society Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index with the presentation of a study conducted by the Polytechnic University of Marche, which examines the index and its applications, recognizing its significant predictive value.
The study,“The Italian Sentiment: Exploring the CFA Society Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index”, analyzes the technical characteristics and robustness of the index, which was developed by CFASI in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore-Radiocor. The paper was authored by Dr. Noemi Giampaoli and Professor Marco Cucculelli, with contributions from Dr. Matteo Cassiani, all from the Polytechnic University of Marche.
Since 2015, the CFA Society Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index has filled a significant gap in Italy’s economic landscape by collecting monthly insights from financial sector professionals on key macroeconomic and financial variables.
Among the study’s key findings:
- It anticipates the movement of the BTP/Bund spread – The index shows that an improvement in sentiment correlates with a reduction in the spread, reflecting increased market confidence in Italy’s economic and financial stability.
- It has a strong correlation with Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) growth rates, confirming its effectiveness in predicting short-term economic trends.
- It anticipates movements in major financial indicators such as the Eurostoxx 50 and the DAX, further reinforcing its practical utility.
“Before its introduction, Italy lacked a dedicated index to measure market sentiment. However, until now, its technical and predictive properties had never been systematically analyzed, leaving a gap in both academic literature and practice. This research fills that void by assessing the index’s effectiveness in predicting various economic variables, select commodity markets, and composite indicators,” stated Matteo Cassiani, CFA, CIPM.
Giuliano Palumbo, CFA, President of CFA Society Italy, emphasized: “Identifying indices capable of promptly detecting shifts in economic activity is a crucial challenge for modern economies. The analysis we will present at the Forecast Dinner demonstrates that the CFA Society Italy - Radiocor Sentiment Index is a reliable tool for forecasting short-term trends, providing valuable insights for policymakers and analysts.”
The CFA Italy survey is conducted in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor on a monthly basis among approximately 500 association members, all professionals operating in the Italian financial sector. Respondents are asked to share their expectations regarding economic conditions and key financial variables in Italy, the Eurozone, and the U.S., as well as exchange rates for the Euro and oil prices.
The “CFA Italy Sentiment Index” reflects the difference between the percentage of respondents who are optimistic about the country’s economic outlook over the next six months and those who are pessimistic.